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Friday 24 September 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish towards the 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 94.742 in line with horizontal swing high and 127% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish from 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.782 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI is also testing resistance where price dropped in the past . Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 92.742 in line with Weekly 2nd resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, prices may face bearish pressure towards the 1st support at 92.765 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.  Our bearish bias is further supported by price holding below the EMA and is seeing a bearish divergence in RSI. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 93.829
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 92.765

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price is on a downward trend and might be dipping towards 1st support at 1674.5, 61,8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Long term buyers could look to short the market as indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking the 1st support will see prices dipping further to our 2nd area of support at 1623.01 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, we might see price rebound to our 1st resistance at 1834 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci retracement and bearish trendline before dipping further.

On the Daily chart, price has dipped below our 20 EMA and has recently bounced off our 1st support at 1749.21 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see the possibility of bullish reversal towards 1st resistance at 1833.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and bearish trendline. Technical indicators are forecasting potential trend reversal.

On the H4 chart, price has recently bounced off 1st support at 1738.43 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and is experiencing bearish pressure. Price may potentially climb higher to our 1st resistance at 1776.16 in line with our bearish trendline, 50% and and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement before experiencing a rebound downwards.  Ichimoku clouds are forecasting bearish momentum.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1738.43
  • 4h 1st resistance 1776.16

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price bounced from the first support at 1.17250, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the Daily chart, prices bounced before reaching first support at 1.17190, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially bounce to retest first resistance at 1.17965, in-line with 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, price bounced above resistance at 1.17370, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap resistance. Price could potentially bounce to first resistance at 1.177000, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. The next potential resistance could be a t 1.18065, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, price could potentially drop to first support at 1.16640, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and swing low support. The next support could potentially be at 1.16000, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension which is also the target price for head & shoulder breakdown.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.16640 and 1.16000
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.177000 and 1.18065

 

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USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support however, it is also at the descending trendline resistance, price might reverse back down and drop towards the ascending trendline support as there is also a strong Ichimoku cloud that might prevent the breakthrough of the resistance. Price is also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90391. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, the price is consolidating in between the 1st support and resistance. It is seen to have a bullish movement towards the 1st resistance at 0.93683. With stochastics abiding to the ascending trendline, we can see that there is potential continuation of the bullish movement.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance 0.93212 and 1st Support 0.92085 and holding above the ascending trendline support . We can expect the price to rise to 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the moving average, the RSI indicator where it bounced off the strong support line and a strong support from the Ichimoku cloud.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st resistance at 0.93323
  • Watch 1st support at 0.92166

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices have bounced from 50MA. On the Daily time frame, price bounced just above the first support at 1.35820, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe prices swung towards resistance at 1.37255, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. Price is at strong resistance and could potentially pull-back to first support at 1.36960, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20EMA. Stochastic is also reaching a resistance level where previous drops occurred. The next potential support will be at 1.36020, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and swing low support.

If prices bounce above, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.37975, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and trendline resistance. The next potential resistance could be at 1.38470, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 36960 and 1.36020 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.37975 and 1.38470 resistance level

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below the descending trendline resistance, and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Otherwise, price might move towards the 1st resistance at 111.660  in line with Horizontal Swing High and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below the 1st resistance at 110.818 in line with 61.8 Fibonacci retracement and 50 Fibonacci extension and may bearish to 1st support at 108.705 in line with Horizontal Swing Low and  127.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by RSI approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price might move towards the 2nd resistance at 110.802 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is below the 1st resistance from 110.447 in line with Horizontal swing high and 100% Fibonacci extension to 1st support at 109.600 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stocastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 110.818 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 110.447
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 109.600

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AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 100 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to push towards the first resistance in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and graphical overlap resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding below EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, price bounced off from the first support in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection and now looking for a pull back, back to the support level.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support. Price has bounced off the first support we are expecting price to be bullish and hence, push to the 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator %K line where it bounces off the support and abides to an ascending trendline.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.74748
  • H4 1st support level 0.72231

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NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71770, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in line with the descending trendline. Price is also holding above EMA 144  supporting our bearish view.

On the Daily chart, price has recently dipped to touch our 1st support at 0.69958 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. We foresee a potential bounce from the 1st support towards our bearish trendline. Stochastics are depicting an oversold situation. Ichimoku clouds are also forecasting trend reversal.

On the H4 timeframe, price has recently bounced off our resistance at 0.70900 which is a graphical swing high and in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and may potentially dip towards our 1st support at 0.69895 in line with 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Ichimoku clouds are forecasting bearish momentum. Alternatively, prices could potentially climb towards our 2nd resistance at 0.71398 which is a graphical swing high and in line with our bearish trendline.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 70900
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.69895

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is currently holding above 1st Support at 1.26099 where a bounce reaction could be possible. With price holding above moving average, a possibility of renewed bullish pressure should price break higher than 1st resistance. Otherwise, price may push lower towards 2nd support at 1.24934.

On the H4, price broke below ascending trendline support, turned resistance. With price approaching 1st support at 1.26099, a short term bounce reaction towards 1st resistance at 1.27253 could be possible. Stochastic is testing support where price bounced in the past as well. Otherwise, breaking below 1st support will see price drop lower towards 2nd support at 1.25619.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support at 1.26099

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we see that price is below the 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension and may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46  in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards 1st resistance at 86.59 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may reversed off from 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with horizontal swing high and 161.8% fibonacci extension to 1st support at 70.86 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stochastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 81.56 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price may reversed off from 1st resistance at 77.82 in line with our daily 1st resistance to 1st support at 73.37 in line 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how price is seeing a bearish divergence in RSI. Otherwise price may bullish towards 2nd resistance at 81.56 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 77.82
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 73.37

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price has recently bounced off our 1st resistance at 35610.57 which is a graphical swing high and is on a bearish momentum. We forecast a potential trend reversal towards our 1st support at 31552.9 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Divergence detected in stochastics depicting lower highs, signalling trend reversal. Alternatively, if prices break 1st resistance, the trend reversal could occur at 2nd resistance at 36613.85 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension.  Our moving average is also forecasting the change in direction.

On the Daily chart, price drifted lower below 1st resistance at 35600. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, it is possible to see some selling pressure push price lower towards 1st support at 33270. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see the price swing higher towards 2nd resistance at 36613.85.

On the H4, price rose higher overnight, surpassing previous resistance. Price is now holding between 1st resistance at 35104 and 1st support at 34510. With longer term indicators giving mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now, watching these two levels. A break above 1st resistance could see price rise further, whilst a break below 1st support could see price drop lower.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H support at 34510
  • 4H resistance at 35104

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