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Wednesday 29 September 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

DXY:

Looking at the Weekly chart price may bearish and reversed off from 1st resistance at 93.829 in line 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension towards 1st support at 90.346 in line with 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and 76.4% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may be bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 94.742 in line with horizontal swing high and 127% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, Price may bearish and reversed off from 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 91.782 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI is also testing resistance where price dropped in the past . Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 92.742 in line with Weekly 2nd resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, prices may face bearish pressure and reversed off from 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 50% Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 93.129 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.  Our bearish bias is further supported by how Stochastic is approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 1st resistance at 93.829 in line with Horizontal swing high and 50% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 93.829
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 93.129

 

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 XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price has recently broken below our ascending trendline support and might be dipping further towards 1st support at 1674.5, 61,8% Fibonacci extension and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Long term buyers could look to short the market as indicators are showing bearish momentum. Breaking the 1st support will see prices dipping further to our 2nd area of support at 1623.01 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, we might see price rebound to our 1st resistance at 1834 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci retracement and bearish trendline before dipping further.

On the Daily chart, price has dipped below our 20 EMA and has recently bounced off our 1st support at 1727.4. in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. We see the possibility of bullish reversal towards 1st resistance at 1833.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and bearish trendline. Technical indicators are forecasting potential trend reversal.

On the H4 chart, price has been consolidating in a downward channel. We foresee a slight pullback towards our 1st resistance at 1741.52 in line with 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and further bearish momentum downwards towards our 1st support at 1718.15 in line with 78.6% and 27.2% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are also showing bearish momentum. Alternatively, breaking our 1st resistance may find prices swing higher towards our 2nd resistance at 1757.18 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and parallel channel.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1718.15
  • 4h 1st resistance 1741.52

 

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EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the price is flirting with the first support at 1.17250, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. On the Daily chart, price flirted with first support at 1.17190, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially drop to first support at 1.16666, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and swing low support.

On the H4 timeframe, prices tried to bounce above first support but failed. It could potentially face further bearish pressure and drop to support at 1.16000, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension and swing low support. Stochastic is also indicating further downside before coming into horizontal support.

If price bounces above, it could potentially swing towards first resistance at 1.17700, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. RSI broke above its descending trendline and is bouncing, indicating a further bullish momentum. Then next potential resistance could be at 1.18065, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.16640 and 1.16000
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.177000 and 1.18065

 

 

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USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support however, it is also at the descending trendline resistance, price might reverse back down and drop towards the ascending trendline support as there is also a strong Ichimoku cloud that might prevent the breakthrough of the resistance. Price is also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90262. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, price is seen to have a bullish momentum abiding to the daily  ascending trendline. We can expect the price to move towards the 1st resistance at 0.93683. With stochastics abiding to the ascending trendline, we can see that there is potential continuation of the bullish movement.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance 0.93212 and 1st Support 0.92166 and holding above the ascending trendline support . We can expect the price to rise to 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the moving average, the RSI indicator where it bounced off the strong support line and abiding to an ascending trendline. In addition,there is strong support from the Ichimoku cloud.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st resistance at 0.93323
  • Watch 1st support at 0.92166

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, the price has closed below 50MA. We could potentially see it drop to first support at 1.34630, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. On the Daily time frame, price bounced just above the first support at 1.35820, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe prices dropped and found support at 1.35320, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially expect price to have a short-term bounce to first resistance at 1.36120, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also at support where previous bounces occurred. The next potential resistance could be at 1.37180, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it could potentially drop to first support at 1.34475, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.33650, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 34475 and 1.33650 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.36120 and 1.37180 resistance level

 

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, price is below 1st resistance at 111.660 in line with Horizontal swing high and 50% Fibonacci extension and may bearish to 1st support 107.480 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stocastic is reacting below resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price might move towards the 2nd resistance at 114.233  in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may reverse off from 1st resistance at 111.660 in line with Horizontal swing high and 76.4% Fibonacci extension and may bearish to 1st support at 109.589 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and  50% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by RSI approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price might move towards the 2nd resistance at 112.400 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4  timeframe,  price is may reversed off from 1st resistance at 111.660 in line with Horizontal swing high and 127.2% Fibonacci extension and may bearish  to 1st support at 110.082 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stocastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise, price may bullish towards the 1st resistance at 111.660 in line with Horizontal swing high and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 111.660
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 110.082

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AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is holding above the MA 130 showing bullish momentum, price is expected to push towards the first resistance in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and graphical overlap resistance. Our bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator, where the K% line bounced off the support level. On the Daily, the price is holding below EMA 34 showing a potential bearish momentum, price bounced off from the 1st support previously in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection and now looking for a pull back, back to the 1st Support level.

On the H4, price is seen to have broken off the descending trendline resistance turned support. Price has bounced multiple times on the 1st support, we are expecting price to be bullish and hence, push to the 1st Resistance level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator %K line where it bounces off the support .

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.74748
  • H4 1st support level 0.72231

 

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NZD/USD:

On the weekly, price has recently bounced off 1st resistance at 0.71760, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, and descending trendline and is dipping towards the 1st support at 0.68000. Swing traders may potentially enter with shorts as we see potentially a bearish momentum in line with the descending trendline. Price is also holding above EMA 144  supporting our bearish view.

On the Daily chart, price has recently dipped to touch our 1st support at 0.69408 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. We foresee a potential bounce from the 1st support towards our bearish trendline. Technical indicators are forecasting potential trend reversal. Alternatively, price may dip further towards our 2nd support at 0.68851 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, price is currently consolidating in a downward channel. It has recently touched our 1st support at 0.69349 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and parallel channel. We foresee the potential of prices dipping further to our 2nd support at 0.68809 in line with 78.6% retracement. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Alternatively, prices could experience a pullback to our 1st resistance at 0.69919 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 69919
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.69349

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 USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term.

On the Daily, price bounced nicely above 1st Support at 1.26099 where further bullish momentum could be possible. With price holding above moving average, a possibility of renewed bullish pressure should price break higher than 1st resistance. Otherwise, price may push lower towards 2nd support at 1.24934.

On the H4, price pushed higher overnight and is now approaching 1st resistance at 1.27253. With stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past, a short term drop towards 1st support at 1.26099 could be possible. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price rise higher towards 2nd resistance at 1.27943

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, resistance at 1.27253

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we see that price is below the 1st resistance at 88.52 in line with Horizontal swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci extension and may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 23.6% fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards 1st resistance at 88.52 in line with Horizontal swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price may reversed off from 1st resistance at 80.72 in line with horizontal swing high and 161.8% fibonacci extension to 1st support at 73.28 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stochastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 83.46 in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, price may reversed off from 1st resistance at 80.72 in line with our Daily 1st resistance to 1st support at 75.58 in line 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension.  Our bearish view is further supported by price holding below the EMA and Stochastic is also reacting below resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards 2nd resistance at 83.94 in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 80.72
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 75.58

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price has been trading sideways between our 1st resistance at 37770 and 1st support at 35610.57. As there is no good risk reward levels,m we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the Daily chart, similar to the weekly, price is now holding between 1st resistance at 35600 and 1st support at 33270. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, a limited drop towards 1st support could be likely. Price may even break 1st support and drop towards 2nd support at 31985. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price rise further towards 2nd resistance at 37770.

On the H4, price pulled lower and is now approaching key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and 1st support at 34197 where a bounce reaction could be possible, with buyers looking at 1st resistance at 35104 as a potential upside target. Otherwise, breaking 1st support will see price drop lower towards 2nd support at 33613.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H support at 34197

 

 

 
 
 
 

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