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Monday 4th October 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

DXY:

On the H4 timeframe, prices have recently tested our 1st resistance at 94.506 and is approaching our 1st support at 93.843 in line with 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement and bullish trendline. We see a potential of prices bouncing from our area of 1st support and retesting our 1st resistance at 94.506. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices may dip further towards our 2nd support at 93.435 in line with 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 94.506
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 93.843

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4 chart, price has recently experienced a bounce from our 2nd support which is a graphical swing low and is currently in the middle of the bearish ichimoku clouds. We see a slight breakthrough in our bearish trendline and a possibility of prices retesting our 1st resistance at 1776.61 which is an area of Fibonacci confluence before any pullback. As Technical Indicators and are giving mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now. Alternatively, prices may dip further along our bearish trendline to our 1st support at 1743.84 which is strong graphical overlap.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1743.84
  • 4h 1st resistance 1776.61

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EUR/USD:

On the H4 chart, Price has recently played out its head and shoulders pattern and is continuing to drop from its first resistance level to its first support of 1.15140 which is in line with Fibonacci Retracement level of 161.8%. If price were to break its first support it will head towards its second support of 1.14190 which is in line with Fibonacci Extension level of 200%.

Alternatively, if price  were to break its first resistance of 1.16640 which is in line with Fibonacci Retracement level of 23.6% and Fibonacci extension level of 78.6% ,it can potentially go towards its 2nd resistance of 1.17120 which is in line with Fibonacci extension level of 61.8% and Fibonacci extension level of 38.2%.

Price is currently showing bearish momentum as it is currently trading under its 20EMA.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.15140 and 1.14190
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.16640 and 1.17120

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USD/CHF:

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in between 1st Resistance 0.93496 and 1st Support 0.92473 and holding above the ascending trendline support,however, price failed to break through the 1st Resistance and hence, we can expect a short-term bearish drop towards the 1st support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it broke off the ascending trendline support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st Support at 0.92473

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GBP/USD:

On the H4 timeframe price dropped and found support at 1.34527, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially see a short-term bounce to first resistance at 1.35280, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next potential resistance could be at 1.36640, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Alternatively if price drops , it could potentially drop to first support at 1.33651, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next potential support could be at 1.32600, in-line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Both the ichimoku cloud indicator and EMA show bearish momentum thus it is more likely for price to dip back to its first support in the short term.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 33650 and 1.32600 support level
  • H4 time frame , 1.35280 and 1.36640 resistance level

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USD/JPY

On the H4 timeframe, price has just approached the 1st Support level and hence we can expect a short -term bullish trend. We can expect price to reach the 1st Resistance level in line with daily resistance. Our short-term bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line touched the support level awaiting for a bounce and the Ichimoku indicator where we can see there is a strong support from the cloud.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 110.800

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AUD/USD:

On the H4, price is seen to be holding below the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bearish momentum.  Price is approaching the 1st resistance where price was not able to break previously, hence we can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement towards the 1st Support in line with previous swing low. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line touched the resistance level and dropped from that level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.73147
  • H4 1st support level 0.71703

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NZD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, price has recently bounced off our 1st support at 0.68595  in line with 88.0% Fibonacci retracement. We foresee the potential of prices climbing towards our 1st resistance at 0.69831 in line with50%, 38.2% and 100% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing potential for trend reversal. Alternatively, prices could retest our 1st support again.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 69831
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.68595

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29882. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term or at least to 1st support at 1.2029.

On the Daily, price bounced nicely above 1st Support at 1.26099 where further bullish momentum could be possible. With price holding above moving average, a possibility of renewed bullish pressure should price break higher than 1st resistance. Otherwise, price may push lower towards 2nd support at 1.24934.

On the H4, with stochastic testing resistance where price dropped in the past along with the current price’s respect of the trend line, a retest and short term drop towards 1st support at 1.25860 may be possible. This further bearish bias can be supported by the ichimoku indicator. Price may possibly even break structure to 2nd support to 1.25438. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance at 1.6949, we will see price rise higher towards 2nd resistance at 1.27744.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support at 1.25860

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, we see that price is below the 1st resistance at 88.52 in line with Horizontal swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci extension and may brearish towards the 1st support at 64.46 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 23.6% fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by RSI approaching resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may bullish towards 1st resistance at 88.52 in line with Horizontal swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the Daily timeframe, price is below 1st resistance at 80.72 in line with horizontal swing high and 161.8% fibonacci extension and may bearish to 1st support at 73.28 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how Stochastic is testing resistance where price dropped in the past. Otherwise price may be bullish towards the 2nd resistance at 84.95 in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, with the ichimoku indicating further bullish movement, price may be headed to 1st resistance at 80.55 and may break structure and head for the 2nd resistance at 86.12. Otherwise, breaking 1st support at 75.90 will see price fall towards 2nd support at 68.46.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 80.55
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 75.90

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price has been trading sideways between our 1st resistance at 37770 and 1st support at 35610.57. As there are no good risk reward levels, we prefer to remain neutral at this current juncture.

On the Daily chart, similar to the weekly, price is now trading between 1st resistance at 35600 and 1st support at 33270. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, a limited drop towards 1st support could be likely. Price may even break 1st support and drop towards 2nd support at 31985. Otherwise, breaking above 1st resistance will see price rise further towards 2nd resistance at 37770.

On the H4, we may expect to see a short term bullish move to 1st resistance at 34695 with recent price closing above the moving average. If price breaks 1st resistance, we may see further bullish moves to second resistance at 35060 as a potential upside target. Otherwise, breaking 1st support at 33890, will see price rise towards 2nd resistance at 35615.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H resistance at 34695
  • 4H support at 33890

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