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Friday 22nd October : Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

The Daily Market Analysis provides an overview of the entire trading day. It helps define potential price volatility and trends by the application of useful technical indicators such as MACD, Ichimoku Clouds and Bollinger bands. A list of potential trading opportunities is also provided for better understanding and planning.

 

DXY:

On the weekly, prices have been consolidating in a channel. We see the potential for a bounce at our intermediate support at 93.730 which is a graphical overlap towards our 1st resistance at 94.742 in line with our 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices might dip to our 1st support at 93.535 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the daily, prices are on a bullish momentum. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 93.730 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences  towards our 1st resistance at 94.730. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.

On the H4 timeframe, are on a short term bearish momentum. We see the potential for further dips from our 1st resistance at 93.730 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st support at 93.506 which is a strong graphical overlap. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 93.781
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 93.506

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly, prices have been consolidating in a triangle and are currently at a pivot. We would watch the intermediate resistance at 1786.88 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for potential trend reversal or continuation. As technical indicators are showing mixed signals, we prefer to remain neutral for now.

On the daily, prices are on a bullish momentum. We see potential for prices to climb towards our intermediate resistance at 1796.05 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is also a graphical overlap. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices may retest our 1st support at 1754.13 which is a graphical swing low.

On the H4 chart, prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see the potential for prices to climb from our 1st support at 1784.74 towards our 1st resistance at 1796.44 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices might dip towards our 2nd support at 1775.85 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1784.74
  • 4h 1st resistance at 1796.44

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EUR/USD:

On the weekly chart, price is currently near the first support level of 1.14505 which is also Fibonacci retracement 50% and Fibonacci projection 127.2% . Price can potentially bounce from the first support to the first resistance level of 1.18967 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement  and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator which shows that it is currently on a descending trendline

On the daily chart, price has recently bounced from the first support level of 1.15256 and can potentially continue its bullish uptrend to first resistance 1.17511 which is 100% Fibonacci projection.

On the H4 chart price has reacted from the first resistance level of 1.16648 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci  projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.  From the graphical level, it is also on a graphical overlap resistance and therefore price can potentially dip back to the first support level which is also 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading under it.

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USD/CHF:

On the weekly, price is holding above ascending trendline support however, it is also at the descending trendline resistance, price might reverse back down and drop towards the ascending trendline support as there is also a strong Ichimoku cloud that might prevent the breakthrough of the resistance. Price is also between 1st resistance at 0.95124 and 1st support at 0.90262. Traders should watch these levels closely for a break to see prices swing higher or drop lower. On the Daily, price is seen to have a short-term bearish momentum approaching the ascending trendline support. We can expect the price to move towards the 1st support at 0.92314 in line with 100% Fibonacci Projection.  Our short-term bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is holding under a descending trendline resistance.

On the H4, price is seen to be reacting in a potential triangle. In reference to yesterday’s analysis, price did indeed move down to the 1st Support at 0.92028 and it bounced up. Now, price is reacting in between the 1st resistance and 1st support, should wait for a better entry point at either the 1st support and 1st resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch 1st Support at 0.91531
  • Watch 1st Resistance at 0.92281

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GBP/USD:

On the weekly chart price is near the first support level of 1.35093 which is also 23.6% retracement level . Price can potentially  continue its uptrend to the first resistance level of 1.42837 which is also  50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% projection level. The first resistance is also the graphical overlap resistance level.

On the daily chart,  price is trading near the first resistance level of 1.38480 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection and can potentially dip back to the first support level which is also 61.8% retracement level. Our bearish bias is supported by a stochastic indicator as price is near the resistance level.

On the 4hr chart, price is trading in an ascending channel and has recently reacted from the first resistance level of 1.38480 which is 127.2% retracement level and 61.8% projection level.  The first resistance level is also the daily resistance and therefore price can potentially dip back to the first support level which is also the support of the ascending channel. Our bearish bias is supported by a stochastic indicator as it shows that it is near resistance level.

 

 

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USD/JPY

On the Weekly timeframe, we can see that price is approaching the 1st resistance in line with horizontal swing highs and 127.2% FIbonacci Retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. We can expect the price to drop from the 1st Resistance towards the 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish momentum is further supported by the stochastic %K line holding below the descending trendline resistance and bearish divergence spotted. On the Daily timeframe, we can expect price to be reversing at 1st Resistance in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and weekly resistance. We are expecting price to ouhs down to the 1st Support in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastics %K line that touched the resistance level and dropped.

On the H4 timeframe, price is in the middle of 1st Resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 1st Support in line with 23.6 % Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Preference: Wait for a better entry level either at the 1st resistance or 1st support, do keep the potential bearish divergence in mind.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 114.671
  • H4 1st support level 113.721

 

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AUD/USD:

On the weekly, price is approaching the 1st Resistance in line with price is expected to push towards the first support in line with previous swing low. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator abiding to a descending trendline. On the Daily, the price is at the 1st Resistance, we can expect price to drop from there in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the 1st Support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4, price is seen to have reached our 1st Support just as we expected yesterday. We can expect the price to bounce from the 1st Support in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and push towards 1st Resistance in line with 50% FIbonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where it is at the resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance level 0.75361
  • H4 1st support level 0.74605

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NZD/USD:

On the weekly, prices are on a bullish momentum. Prices are recently testing our intermediate resistance at 0.71984 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially go even higher towards our 1st resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are showing bullish momentum.

On the daily, prices have been consolidating in a parallel channel. We see the possibility of prices testing our intermediate support 0.71643 and potentially bounce off our 1st support at 0.71028 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 0.72174 in line with 127.2% and 100% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are on a bullish momentum. Price could potentially climb from our 1st support at 0.71636 towards our 1st resistance at 0.72231 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Alternatively, prices may climb higher towards our 1nd resistance at 0.72444 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.72231
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.71643

 

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price tested and reacted below long term moving average and also both 38.2%  level at 1.29764. As long as the price is holding below this level, we could potentially see the price facing further bearish pressure in the long term or at least to 1st support at 1.2029.

On the Daily, with price moving below our moving average and the ichimoku showing bearish momentum, we may see a continuation of a bearish momentum to 2nd support at 1.22101 from 1st support.Otherwise, it may first do a retest at 1st resistance at 1.24902 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement before continuing its bearish momentum.

On the H4, price has broken the ascending trendline and with the existing bearish sentiment where price is moving below the ichimoku, we may expect to see price head for 1st support at 1.23219 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is a retest and pullback to the trendline. Alternatively, price may see price break 1st resistance structure at 1.23633 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and head for 2nd resistance at 1.23844.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support at 23219
  • H4 time frame, resistance at 23633

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OIL:

On Weekly timeframe, price is at a swing high and 1st resistance at 86.26. With the stochastic indicator also showing that price is at its resistance, we are bias that price may head down from here to 1st support at 76.47 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Alternatively, it may break 1st resistance at 86.26 and head for 2nd resistance at 96.36 which is a graphical overlap resistance.

On the Daily timeframe, similar to the weekly, we are biased that price will head to the daily’s 1st support at 79.3 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, it may break 1st resistance at 86.26 and head for 2nd resistance at 92.76

On the H4 timeframe, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and the overall existing bullish sentiment, we may see price continue its bullish momentum to 1st resistance at 86.09 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1st support at 84.19 in line with the horizontal overlap support. Alternatively, it may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 83.31 which is a graphical swing low support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 09
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 19

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, price has been trading sideways between our 1st resistance at 37178 and 1st support at 33270. As there are no good risk reward levels, we prefer to remain neutral at this current juncture.

On the Daily chart, price is at 1st resistance at 35618 in line with the graphical swing high resistance. With support from the stochastic indicator indicating that price is at a resistance, we may likely see price dip to 1st support from here at 35186 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement.Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance at 35618 and head for 2nd resistance at 36080 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% in line with the Fibonacci projection.

On the H4, with price is approaching the 1st resistance at 35664 which is a graphical horizontal swing high resistance in line with 100% Fibonacci projection, we have a bearish bias that price will head down from here to 1st support at 35334 in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level which is a horizontal overlap support . Price may even head for 2nd support at 35067 in line 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Otherwise, if price breaks structure at 1st resistance, we may likely see a new high at 2nd resistance at 35968.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4H resistance at 35664
  • 4H support at 35334

 

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