Monday saw a surge in oil prices, fueled by expectations of tightened global supplies following Russia’s announcement of production cuts. This decision aligns with the country’s OPEC+ commitments, amidst ongoing disruptions to its refinery operations due to Ukrainian military actions.

By the late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude witnessed a 1.64% increase, reaching $81.95 per barrel, while Brent crude ascended by 1.6%, hitting $86.57 per barrel.

Russia’s Strategic Production Adjustments

In a bid to adhere to OPEC+ quotas, Russia has mandated a reduction in oil output, as reported by sources to Reuters. This move comes as Ukrainian forces persist in their strategic targeting of Russian refining facilities, exacerbating tensions in the global fuel market and spurring demand for available crude oil cargoes, according to ANZ Research.

Further complicating the supply landscape, Indian refineries are reportedly declining Russian crude transported by PJSC Sovcomflot tankers, a decision influenced by U.S. sanctions, amplifying market pressures.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Oil Market Stability

In addition to supply-side considerations, geopolitical developments continue to influence the oil market. A recent United Nations Security Council vote called for a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza strip during Ramadan and demanded the release of all hostages by Hamas. However, this non-binding resolution is unlikely to halt Israeli military operations in Gaza.

The potential for de-escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict is seen as a critical factor that could mitigate geopolitical instability in the Middle East, thereby sustaining crude supplies from the region and supporting oil prices.

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