Iran Retaliation Attack on Israel Delayed, OPEC Focuses on Demand Worries
In a recent statement, an Iran Revolutionary Guard spokesperson hinted at a potential delay in a retaliation attack on Israel. This development has shifted the market’s attention towards concerns about demand, with major OPEC producers staying out of war.
While the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest increase of 347,000 barrels in crude supply, the significant drop of 1.043 million barrels in gasoline supply and 2.247 million barrels in distillate could provide support for crude prices.
The weakening crack spreads for petroleum products indicate a possible slowdown in the US economy. Market analysts are also speculating about a potential downward revision in US jobs numbers, questioning whether the Federal Reserve acted swiftly enough with rate cuts.
Financial experts at Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are anticipating benchmark revisions that could reveal a significant discrepancy in reported job creation numbers. This could have far-reaching implications for the economy.
On the energy front, predictions of peak oil demand are being reevaluated. Enbridge’s CEO, Greg Ebel, believes that oil demand could continue to grow in the coming decades, presenting a more optimistic outlook compared to other forecasts.
One significant factor that could impact oil prices is the possibility of escalating tensions leading to war. If Kamala Harris’s proposed policies, including price controls and increased taxes, are implemented, oil demand may plummet while prices soar.
As summer temperatures rise, natural gas prices are rebounding. Despite a projected increase in supply, the heatwave could drive prices higher.
According to John Kemp at Reuters, US cooling demand this summer has been above the long-term average but lower than recent “hot” summers. The population-weighted cooling degree days are higher than the historical average but lower than in previous years.
In conclusion, geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and weather patterns are all factors influencing the energy market. Understanding these dynamics can help individuals make informed decisions about their investments and financial planning.