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Tuesday 5th May 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22800. On the daily chart, prices are trading within our support and resistance levels at 1.19792 and 1.22000 respectively.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure from our resistance at 1.20755 and could see a further downside before it reaches our first support level at 1.19868, in line with our ascending trend line and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Failure to hold below the above the support level at 1.19868 could see a further drop to our next support target at 1.19275.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.20755 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.19868 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are trading within our support and resistance levels at 1.43000 and 1.36622 respectively. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our resistance level at 1.4000, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see limited upside above our daily support level at 1.38000.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing its resistance at 1.39091, in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement where a break above this level could see a further upside to our next resistance target at 1.4000, in line with our resistance level found on the daily time frame. Failure to hold above our ascending trend line and support level at 1.38000 could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.3800, in line with the graphical swing low support level found on the H4 time frame.

Areas of consideration:

  •  1.39091 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.38000 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price is displaying a consistent bullish move where it may find resistance at 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of 0.79018. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar move with price trending sideways near the previous swing high level of 0.78202, and has bounced off the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level at 0.77142

On the H4 timeframe, the price has reversed from the 78.6% fibonacci retracement where we saw a push down which broke past both Daily support and Previous swing low before bouncing back up. It is currently testing the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level in line with the descending trendline at 0.77295, where we may see a push further down past the previous swing low, and daily support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may push past daily support and create a new low after reversing from 0.77295
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing sideways consolidation

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci extension. In the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.904 level which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and is taking support from ascending trendline support and is in line with 108.904 level which is our daily support level. Prices might push up towards 110.978. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 106.916 level. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • Price are taking support on 108.904 level on both the daily and weekly timeframe

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USD/CAD

The weekly chart shows price respecting the descending trendline, and reversed from the 61.8% level and is currently testing the 1.22547 level in line with -27%, 100% Fibonacci retracement. If the price manages to break beneath this level, we may see it swing towards the next support level at 1.21376. In the daily time frame, we see a similar picture as price is holding above the weekly support in line with 127% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension level.The H4 timeframe we are able to see price making higher highs and higher lows, however the main trend is still bearish. So we may expect a bearish sign when price manages to break beneath the support level at 1.22703, where we may see a swing towards the weekly support at 1.22243

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a strong support level at the current price
  • On H4, price may break beneath current support and swing towards next support at 1.22243

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USD/CHF

USD/CHF has seen a reversal at the descending trendline resistance and is now approaching the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see a reversal and further downside from here towards the next daily 0.89800 support level.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price has just reversed from , and is now holding below the Ichimoku cloud, showing bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. Price is also now holding below the daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance area, which is in line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially see further downside below the Ichimoku cloud resistance, towards our weekly 0.89800 support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, price could also make a stronger pullback to retest the 0.92300 support-turned-resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price is facing bearish pressure as it is now testing the Ichimoku cloud resistance.
  • We could potentially see price swing towards the next 0.89800 weekly support.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

On the weekly chart, price is holding below key 34600 resistance. With price deviating so far from the moving average, we may expect to see some mean reversion in the Dow soon. Sellers may add to their shorts below 34600 resistance with a possible long term downside target at 31190 support. Otherwise a weekly break and close above 34600 resistance will see price swing higher. On the Daily, price is capped below 34600 weekly resistance and seems to be reversing as well. Traders should be cautious about any form of selling as technical indicators remain bullish.

On the H4, price is still holding between 33740 support and 34600 resistance. With price trading sideways and technical indicators are still giving mixed signals, along with divergence is still noted on the H4, we prefer to remain neutral watching these levels instead

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely 33740 intraday support
  • Watch closely 34600 intraday resistance

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is testing and holding below descending trendline resistance and long term moving average resistance at 1785. A weekly close below this resistance could see price pull back lower towards 1687 support. On the Daily timeframe, price tested and reacted below the resistance zone at 1805. A short term drop towards support at 1730 could be likely. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1805 resistance could see price swing higher towards 1855 resistance next. On the H4, price drifted lower overnight. We see a low probability bullish scenario where buyers may consider buying around the 1766 level with an upside target at 1805 resistance. Otherwise failure to hold above 1766 will see price swing lower towards next support at 1745.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 technical indicators are mixed

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