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Thursday 6th May 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22800. On the daily chart, prices are approaching our support level at 1.1980, in line with our graphical support level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement where we could see a bounce above this level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support level at 1.19800, in line with our daily support level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement where we could see a bounce above this level to our first resistance level at 1.20690. Failure to hold above our support level at 1.19800 could see a swing towards our next support level at 1.19275.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.20690 resistance area found on H4 time frame.
  • 1.39091 resistance area found on H4 time frame1.19800 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are trading within our support and resistance levels at 1.43000 and 1.36622 respectively. On the daily time frame, prices are approaching our resistance level at 1.4000, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement where we could see limited upside above our daily support level at 1.38000.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are testing its resistance at 1.39091, in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement where a break above this level could see a further upside to our next resistance target at 1.4000, in line with our resistance level found on the daily time frame. Failure to hold above our ascending trend line and support level at 1.38000 could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.36800, in line with the graphical swing low support level found on the H4 time frame.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.39091 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.38000 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price is displaying a consistent bullish move where it may find resistance at 78.6% fibonacci retracement level of 0.79018. From the daily timeframe, we see a similar move with price trending sideways near the previous swing high level of 0.78202, and has bounced off the 50% fibonacci retracement level in line with horizontal graphical overlap at 0.76769.

On the H4 timeframe, we see that the price has tested the Daily support and previous swing low without closing beneath the level in any single candles. This shows a strong bullish momentum at that price level where we may start looking for long positions. Currently if price manages to pullback down to 0.77236, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, and show signs of reversal, we can enter the market towards the -27% fibonacci level in line with horizontal swing high at 0.77681.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may pull back towards 0.77236 before pushing up higher.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing sideways consolidation on a bullish trend.

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USD/JPY:

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% FIbonacci retracement and 78.6% FIbonacci extension. In the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.904 level which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and are taking support from the daily support level of 108.904 level. Prices might push up towards 110.978. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 106.916 level which is also in line with 161.8% retracement. EMA is also below prices, showing a bullish pressure for prices.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • Price are taking support on 108.904 level on both the daily and weekly timeframe

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USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows price respecting the descending trendline, and reversed from the 61.8% level and is currently testing the 1.22665 level in line with -27%, 100% Fibonacci retracement. If price manages to break beneath this level, we may see it swing towards the next support level at 1.21376. In the daily time frame, we see the similar picture as price is breaking beneath the weekly support in line with Daily swing low. We may see a continuation of this bearish move towards the weekly support level at 1.21363.

The H4 timeframe we are able to see a little more clearly that price has broken the Daily support level turned resistance at 1.22703. It gives us a signal that price is ready to push lower. The best post of call will be to wait for a pullback towards the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 1.23133 before entering a short and taking price towards the Weekly support at 1.22243 in line with H4 -27% fibonacci retracement level.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a break in the strong support level.
  • On H4, price may pullback towards 1.23133 before swinging towards next support at 1.22243

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has seen a reversal at the descending trendline resistance and is now approaching the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. We could potentially see a reversal and further downside from here towards the next daily 0.89800 support level.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is now in a sideways movement at the moment. It is worth noting that price continues to hold below the daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance area, which is in line with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. We could potentially see further downside towards our weekly 0.89800 support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Otherwise, price could also make a stronger pullback to retest the 0.92300 support-turned-resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

  • We could potentially see price swing towards the next 0.89800 weekly support.
  • Price could also make a stronger pullback to retest the 0.92300 level and ascending trendline support-turned-resistance.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is holding below key 34600 resistance. With price deviating so far from the moving average, we may expect to see some mean reversion in the Dow soon. Sellers may add to their shorts below 34600 resistance with a possible long term downside target at 31190 support. Otherwise a weekly break and close above 34600 resistance will see price swing higher. On the Daily, price is capped below 34600 weekly resistance and seems to be reversing as well. Traders should be cautious about any form of selling as technical indicators remain bullish.

On the H4, price is still holding between 33740 support and 34600 resistance. With price trading sideways and technical indicators are still giving mixed signals, along with divergence is still noted on the H4, we prefer to remain neutral watching these levels instead

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch closely 33740 intraday support
  • Watch closely 34600 intraday resistance

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, gold is testing and holding below descending trendline resistance and long term moving average resistance at 1785. A weekly close below this resistance could see price pull back lower towards 1687 support. On the Daily timeframe, price tested and reacted below the resistance zone at 1805. A short term drop towards support at 1730 could be likely. Otherwise, failure to hold below 1805 resistance could see price swing higher towards 1855 resistance next. On the H4, prices are trading within our support and resistance ranges at 1766 and 1805 respectively. We see a low probability bullish scenario where buyers may consider buying around the 1766 level with an upside target at 1805 resistance. Otherwise failure to hold above 1766 will see price swing lower towards next support at 1745.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1766 support level found on H4 time frame.
  • 1805 resistance level found on H4 time frame

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