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Monday 10th May: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are seeing further limited upside before it reaches our resistance area at 1.22000 – 1.22800. On the daily chart, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.1980, in line with our graphical support level and 38.2% fibonacci retracement where we could see a bounce above this level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support level at 1.20631, in line with our graphical overlap support and 61.8% retracement where we could see a further upside above this level, with 1.22218 as our next resistance target. Failure to hold above the 1.20631 support could see a swing towards our next support target at 1.19893.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.22218 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  •  1.20631 support area found on H4 time frame

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that prices are facing bullish pressure from our ascending trend line and support at 1.36622 where we could see a further upside above this level to our resistance target at 1.43000, in line with the 78.6% fibonacci extension. The daily time frame echoes the same bullish view as well where we could see a further upside above our support level at 1.38000 with 1.43000 as our resistance target.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bullish pressure from our support at 1.39871, in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement where we could see a further upside above this level with 1.41000 as our resistance level. A break above the resistance level could provide the bullish acceleration to our next resistance target at 1.42000, in line with the 127.2% extension level.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1.41000 resistance area found on H4 time frame
  • 1.39871 support area found on H4 timeframe

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AUD/USD:

From the Weekly timeframe, price is approaching resistance at 78.6% fibonacci retracement and extension level of 0.79018. From the daily timeframe, we see a gap opened in the market where a retest of breaking the previous swing high at 0.78202 has not been made. We may see a short-term pullback before a further push up towards the weekly resistance.

On the H4 timeframe, we see a little clearly that market has yet to retest the area at 0.78083, in line with Daily resistance turned-support, 61.8%, 127% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension as well as previous major level of 0.78. This would be our next port of call towards the upside where the weekly resistance is at 0.78991, in line with major figure 0.79.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 may pull back to 0.78083 area before pushing up towards 0.78991.
  • Daily and weekly time frames showing bullish momentum and more space towards the upside.

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USD/JPY:

From the weekly timeframe, prices are facing resistance from horizontal swing high resistance which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension, taking support from 104.224 level which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. On the daily time frame, prices are facing support from 108.425 level which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices might bounce towards daily resistance level 110.978 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken out of descending trendline resistance and came back to retest the descending trendline resistance and is taking support from the daily support level of 108.425 level. Prices might push up towards 110.978. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 106.916 level which is also in line with 161.8% retracement. Stochastics is also approaching a support level of 9.64, potential for a bounce.

Areas of consideration:

  •  On the H4, prices might push up towards 110.978 daily resistance level
  • Price is taking support on 108.904 level on both the daily and weekly timeframe

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USD/CAD:

The weekly chart shows price breaking below the support level at 1.21198, in line with the -61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal graphical swing low taken from 11 september 2017. From here, we may see a further drop down towards the horizontal swing low from 11th May (2015).

In the daily time frame, we are seeing similar pictures where there’s more space for bearish movement.

The H4 timeframe is showing a pullback where we may find it retesting the Weekly support turned-resistance in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement level at 1.21420, before pushing down to 1.20786 level, in line with 78.6% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • The weekly and daily time frame shows a break in the strong support level and continuation of the bearish move.
  • On H4, price may pullback towards 1.21420 before swinging towards next support at 1.20786

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has reversed at the descending trendline resistance and is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The daily chart shows that price is now holding below the key daily 0.92300 support-turned-resistance, and has also broken below the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance. The weekly 0.89800 support level is a key level to watch.

On the H4 chart, we can see that price is now testing the weekly 0.89800 support area, which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level as well. We note that Stochastics is also approaching the 3.41 lower support level where it has reacted before. The weekly 0.89800 support area will be an important intraday level to watch as well. We could see a bounce at this level and further pullback to the upside. However, if price were to break and close below the 0.89800 level, we could see it push lower to test the next 0.87600 weekly support.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price is now testing the 0.89800 weekly support area.
  • We could see a bounce, or a further push down to test the next 0.87600 weekly support.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price pushed higher, and closed above previous weekly resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we can expect further bullish pressure above 32765 support. On the daily chart, price holding above moving average and also above ascending trendline support. It is possible to see buyers add to their longs above 33800 support with upside target at 35970 resistance. Otherwise, price could also swing the other way towards 32180 support.

On the H4, technical indicators continue to confirm the long term bullish pressure. We see a possibility of a further upside with buyers looking for opportunities to go long with an upside target at 35970 weekly resistance. Otherwise price could swing the other way to next support at 33800

Areas of consideration:

  • Technical indicators across all timeframes confirm bullish momentum

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XAU/USD (Gold):

On the weekly timeframe, price pushed higher, closing above previous weekly resistance. We could see renewed bullish pressure this coming week. On the daily, price is still capped below daily descending trendline resistance. Price could see bearish pressure below 1850 resistance. Otherwise, a daily close and break above 1850 could see price push higher towards weekly resistance at 1965. On the H4, price pushed higher. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish upside, it is possible to see buyers add to their longs at 1822 support, with a possible upside target at 1850. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1822 support, could see price swing lower towards graphical overlap support at 1800.

Areas of consideration:

  • Watch H4 1822 support.
  • Technical indicators are bullish on H4

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