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Friday 23rd July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure below 20EMA and 50MA, where we are expecting the price to swing towards support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA . On the daily chart prices faced bearish pressure and dropped to 1.17530, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices tried to break out of the upper wedge trendline towards resistance at 1.18295, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. However, the price faced bearish pressure and the candle closed back inside the wedge. We are expecting price to drop to first support level at 1.17425, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also indicating bearish momentum for further downside. The next support will be at 1.17125, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from current level, it will swing towards resistance at 1.18540, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18817, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17425 and 1.17125
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18540 and 1.18817

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices broke previous support at 1.36780 and is now coming into major support at 1.35223, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. On the daily time frame, prices rebound to resistance at 1.37805, in-line with 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. We expect the price to face bearish pressure and drop at this level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swing towards resistance at 1.37642, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci extension and previous price broke down level. As the price is at the daily time frame  resistance level, we expect the price to face bearish pressure and drop to 1.37045, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also at resistance where previous drops occurred. The next support will be at 1.36180, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from current level, it will swing towards resistance at 1.38455, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.39200, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37045 and 1.36180 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.38455 and 1.39200 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that the price broke beneath the support level of 0.74177, in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci extension. We may see a push down towards 0.72051, in line with 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement.  On the daily time frame, we are seeing a similar picture where price may continue pushing further lower.

Lastly, on the H4 timeframe, as expected, price is pushed up towards the Weekly and Daily resistance for a retest, which is also in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement at 0.73877, from here we can look for a short towards the previous swing low.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, price may push lower from resistance area
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing down towards the horizontal swing low support of 107.477, in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a bounce from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.699 level, which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 108.559, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. A break above the 110.699 level may see prices push up towards the 112.322 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken above the descending trendline resistance and approaching horizontal swing high resistance, in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support, in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, EMA is holding below prices and in line with horizontal swing low support. MACD signal lines just cross above the 0 line.

Areas of consideration:

  • 387 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 815 resistance level on the H4

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is currently trending above the moving average showing bullish momentum, however MACD is still holding under the 0-line. Price is currently holding between long term resistance at 1.28814 and long term support at 1.20068. On the Daily timeframe, we see that price showed a bearish reversal from the 127% fibonacci extension level near 1.28273 and is headed towards 1.25470 support level.

Lastly on the H4 timeframe, we see price bouncing sideways between the Daily Resistance turned support level, and 1.26039, in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 127% fibonacci extension. If price breaks above this resistance, we may see a push further up.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows price trending sideways within consolidation, waiting for bullish breakout.
  • Weekly and Daily time frame shows bullish momentum

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, price is currently testing the resistance at 0.9817 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance. Price is likely  to continue to resist and drop to take support at the 0.91176 level which is in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.127.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Our bearish view is further supported by how there is a hidden descending trend line on the RSI.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could potentially breakout of the resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.92735
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.91176 support level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic reacting below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the same as price traded sideways and is still holding below daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price drifted higher and is still holding above 1794 support. With stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we still see a low probability bounce scenario where buyers may look to enter and push price towards recent swing high at 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1794 support, will see price possibly drop towards next support at 1768 or even 1764 weekly support zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1794 H4 support level is the key level to watch.

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