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Monday 26th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure below 20EMA and 50MA, where we are expecting the price to swing towards support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. RSI is also indicating further bearish pressure before coming into the level where previous bounces occured. On the daily chart prices faced bearish pressure and dropped to 1.17530, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Price actions have tried to bounce off this major support for the last four candles but failed. If the price comes back to retest this level, we expect the price to break down from this level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are still consolidating in the wedge and we are awaiting to see which direction the price action will break out from. If price drops, it will find support at 1.17425, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. If price breaks down from lower wedge trendline support, it will swing towards next support at 1.17125, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension

If price breaks out above the wedge upper trendline resistance,  it will swing towards resistance at 1.18295, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18540, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.17425 and 1.17125
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18295 and 1.18540

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices bounced from support at 1.35900, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. On the daily time frame, prices rebounded to resistance at 1.37805, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA. We expect the price to face bearish pressure and drop to retest 1.36780, in-line with 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure at 1.37642, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci extension and previous price broke down level. We expect the price to face further bearish pressure and drop to 1.36955, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is also at resistance where previous drops occurred. The next support will be at 1.36000, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price bounces from current level, it will swing towards resistance at 1.38455, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.39200, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37642 and 1.36000 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.38455 and 1.39200 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price dropped and bounced from support at 0.72860, in-line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 127.2% fibonacci extension. This level remains a major interim support level on weekly as well as daily time frame, breaking down from this level could send the price lower. On the daily chart, price is under bearish pressure from all the 20EMA, 50MA and 200MA.

On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure from 50MA and we expect the price to drop and retest support level at 0.73030, in-line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. MACD also looks to crossover for the start of bearish momentum. The next support level at 0.72600, in-line with 127.2% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension.

If the price bounces from this level, it will swing towards resistance at 0.74175, in-line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension. The next resistance level is at 0.74965, in-line with 100% fibonacci retracement and 200% fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 0.73030 and 72600 support level
  • H4 time frame, 0.74175 and 0.74965 resistance level

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing down towards the horizontal swing low support of 107.477, in line with 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a bounce from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.699 level, which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 108.559, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. A break above the 110.699 level may see prices push up towards the 112.322 level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have broken above the descending trendline resistance and approaching horizontal swing high resistance, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance, in line with 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support, in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, EMA is holding below prices and in line with horizontal swing low support. MACD signal lines just cross above the 0 line.

Areas of consideration:

  • 699 resistance level on the daily andH4 timeframe
  • 116 resistance level on the H4

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is approaching graphical overlap support at 1.25013. With price holding above daily moving average, a short term bounce towards graphical swing high resistance at 1.28075 could be possible.

On the H4, we see price trading sideways, holding below 1.25945 resistance. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, we see a low probability bearish scenario for price to drop towards daily support at 1.25013. Otherwise, breaking above 1.25945 will see price swing the other way towards the next resistance at 1.26725.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows price trending sideways within consolidation, waiting for bullish breakout.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, price is currently testing the resistance at 0.92017 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance. Price has made 3 touches on the 0.92017 resistance level and is likely to drop to the 1st support at 0.91176  which is in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.127.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Our bearish view is further supported by how there is a hidden descending trend line on the RSI.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could potentially breakout of the resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.92735
  • We could see price drop towards the next 0.91176 support level.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the same as price drifted higher last Friday and is now testing and holding below daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch
  • Bearish divergence on H4

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead. On the H4, price tested and bounced above 1794 support. With stochastic testing support where price bounced in the past, we still see a low probability bounce scenario where buyers may look to enter and push price towards recent swing high at 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1794 support, will see price possibly drop towards next support at 1768 or even 1764 weekly support zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1794 H4 support level is the key level to watch.

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