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Wednesday 28th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure below 20EMA and 50MA, where we are expecting the price to swing towards support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. On the daily chart prices swing towards daily resistance at 1.18390, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20EMA. We are expecting the price to face bearish pressure and pull back. Stochastic is also resistance where previous drops occurred.

On the H4 timeframe, prices rebounded from pull-back support to daily resistance at 1.18390. Price is at major daily resistance where we expect it to retrace back to support at 1.1801, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. RSI is also at resistance where previous drops occurred. The next swing low support will be at 1.17715, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

If the price bounces, it will swing towards resistance at 1.18540, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.18775, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18054 and 1.17715
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18540 and 1.18775

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices bounced from support at 1.35900, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. On the daily time frame, price broke above the descending trendline towards resistance at 1.39100, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. We expect the price to face bearish pressure and pull back to support at 1.37812, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swung towards resistance at 1.38980, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. We expect the price to face bearish pressure and pull back to first support at 1.37752, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline resistance-turned-support and daily support. Both RSI and Stochastic are also at resistance where previous drops occurred. The next support is at 1.36595, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension.

If the price continues to bounce, it will swing towards resistance at 1.39190, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.40000, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 37752 and 1.36595 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39190 and 1.40000 resistance level

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has broken beneath the 0.74177 support-turned-resistance level in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we may see a retreat in this area before price pushes down further. This is supported by price trending under the moving average. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar picture with further confirmation as price is trending under the descending trendline and Weekly resistance area in line with 127% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement level.

On the H4 timeframe, we see price testing Daily and Weekly resistance level at 0.73877, in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci extension. We can also see an ascending trendline. Therefore, if price was to break beneath the ascending trendline, we can look for a sell towards 0.73133 level, in line with previous swing low and fibonacci confluence.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, showing strong resistance area
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing bearish momentum

 

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing up towards the horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a breakout from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 114.565, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.648 level, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 107.477, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have bounced above the horizontal swing low support of 109.601 , in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance of 110.593, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, stochastic is approaching hidden support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 601 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 593 resistance level on the H4 timeframe

 

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is approaching graphical overlap support at 1.25013. With price holding above daily moving average, a short term bounce towards graphical swing high resistance at 1.28075 could be possible.

On the H4, we see price trading sideways, where it broke above 1.25895 and is currently retesting the area. From here we may look for a long position towards the next resistance level at 1.26725. MACD is also showing crossover for bullish price move.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 shows bullish breakout and is currently retesting the zone where we may look for long positions.
  • Weekly and Daily time frame showing room for bullish push.

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, it appears that price may resist off the horizontal pull back resistance at 0.91634 which is in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, to potentially break the 0.91176 level which is in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can then take support at 0.90496 level in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci extension level.  Our bearish bias is further confirmed by how the MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could bounce up from the 0.91176 level and rise to the 0.91634 level
  • Price could make a bearish breakout of the 91176 level and plunge further to the 0.90496 level

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the as price continues to test and hold below daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We still see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch
  • Bearish divergence on H4

 

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price is holding above 1794 support. With RSI testing support where price bounced in the past, we still see a low probability bounce scenario where buyers may look to enter and push price towards recent 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1794 support, will see price possibly drop towards next support at 1768 or even 1764 weekly support zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1794 H4 support level is the key level to watch.

 

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