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Thursday 29th July 2021: Technical Outlook and Review

Elan Posh 0

EUR/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that prices are facing bearish pressure below 20EMA and 50MA, where we are expecting the price to swing towards support at 1.16200, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. On the daily chart, prices broke out of resistance at 1.18390, in-line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 20EMA. Hence, we would expect the price to swing towards daily resistance at 1.18780, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. RSI and Stochastic are also indicating bullish momentum for further upside.

On the H4 timeframe, prices pulled back to support 1.17730, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Then it regained bullish momentum and swung towards resistance at 1.18505, in-line with 100% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. We are expecting further bullish momentum for the price to swing towards resistance at 1.18775,  in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 200MA. The next resistance will be at 1.19015, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops, it will find support at 1.18180, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and 20EMA horizontal overlap support. The next support will be at 1.17745, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, support level at 1.18180 and 1.17745
  • H4 time frame, resistance level at 1.18775 and 1.19015

 

 

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GBP/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, prices bounced from support at 1.35900, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 50MA. Price could potentially bounce back to retest 20EMA. On the daily time frame, price broke above the descending trendline towards resistance at 1.39100, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. Prices have limited upside and we expect the price to face strong resistance at 1.39280, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices swung towards resistance at 1.38980, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. Prices have limited upside and we expect the price to face strong daily resistance between the range of 1.39190-1.39280. Both RSI and Stochastic are also at resistance where previous drops occurred. We expect the price to pull back to support at 1.38290, in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support will be at 1.37610, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension.

If the price continues to bounce, it will face strong daily resistance between the range of 1.39190-1.39280, in-line with -61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 1.40000, in-line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and psychological resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 38290 and 1.37610 support level
  • H4 time frame, 1.39190 and 1.40000 resistance level

 

 

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AUD/USD:

Looking at the weekly chart, price has broken beneath the 0.74177 support-turned-resistance level in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement, where we may see a retreat in this area before price pushes down further. This is supported by price trending under the moving average. On the Daily timeframe, we are seeing a similar picture with further confirmation as price is trending under the descending trendline and Weekly resistance area in line with 127.2% and 23.6% fibonacci retracement level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are facing bearish pressure at 0.73920, in-line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the prices can close above 0.73920, we would see prices swing towards resistance at 0.74215, in-line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. The next resistance will be at 0.74575,  in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.

If price drops it will swing towards support at 0.73030, in-line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. The next support will be at 0.72600, in-line with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 0.73030 and 72600 support level
  • H4 time frame, 0.73920 and 0.74215 resistance level

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USD/JPY

From the weekly timeframe, prices are pushing up towards the horizontal swing high resistance of 112.322, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension, where we might see a breakout from this level. In the case that price pushes up, prices may face resistance at horizontal swing high resistance of 114.565, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily timeframe, prices have broken the ascending trendline support, and resisted the 110.648 level, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down towards 109.064, in line with 100% Fibonacci extension.

On the H4 timeframe, prices have bounced above the horizontal swing low support of 109.601 , in line with 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices are likely to rally towards horizontal swing high resistance of 110.593. Prices may reverse to horizontal swing low support, in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Moreover, stochastic is approaching hidden support.

Areas of consideration:

  • 601 resistance level on the H4 timeframe
  • 593 resistance level on the H4 timeframe

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USD/CAD:

On the Weekly timeframe, price is holding below long term moving average and also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.29950. As long as the price is holding below this level, we see price facing further bearish pressure in the long term. On the Daily, price is approaching graphical overlap support at 1.25013. With price holding above daily moving average, a short term bounce towards graphical swing high resistance at 1.28075 could be possible.

On the H4, price pulled back lower and is close to daily support at 1.25013. We see a low probability of a bounce scenario where buyers may look to add to their longs with a possible upside target at 1.25952. Otherwise, failure to hold above daily support will see price drop further towards next support at 1.24400.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 stochastic on support

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USD/CHF:

USD/CHF has shown a strong bounce from the weekly 0.89146  support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and price is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. The daily chart shows that price is now reversing below the key daily resistance of 0.92735. We could potentially see further downside towards the 0.90462 support.

On the H4 chart, it appears that price has just broken the support at 0.91176 which is in line with the horizontal swing low,  161.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement. We can therefore expect price to further plunge to the 2nd support at 0.90496 which is a horizontal pullback support in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further reinforced by how the MACD is shown to be below the 0 line.

Areas of consideration:

  • Price could reverse within the 1st support confluence zone to rise up to the 1st resistance at 0.91634.
  • Price could continue its bearish movement to the 2nd support at 0.90496

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Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the weekly chart, price is trading sideways holding between 32765 support and 37525 resistance. With price holding above long term moving average, we see price facing further bullish pressure. On the daily chart, price is currently trading sideways and holding below resistance at 35090. With stochastic still holding below resistance where price dropped in the past, we see price facing possible bearish pressure.

On the H4, the picture remains the as price reacts below daily resistance at 35090 level. Bearish divergence still remains valid on RSI indicator. We still see a low probability scenario where sellers might add to their shorts to push price lower towards 33741 support. Otherwise failure to hold below 35090 resistance should see price swing the other way towards 35485 resistance instead.

Areas of consideration:

  • 35090 daily resistance is key level to watch
  • Bearish divergence on H4

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XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly timeframe, price tested and bounced above key trendline pullback support at 1764. On the daily, price is now trading sideways, holding between 1855 resistance and 1764 weekly support. With no clear levels for entry that provides a good risk to reward ratio, we prefer to keep a neutral stance for now. Breaking above resistance at 1855 will see price push higher towards 1916 resistance. Otherwise, a break below 1764 support will see price drop lower towards 1677 support instead.

On the H4, price bounced above 1794 support. We still see a price facing further bullish pressure where buyers may look to enter and push price towards recent 1835 resistance. Otherwise, failure to hold above 1794 support, will see price possibly drop towards next support at 1768 or even 1764 weekly support zone.

Areas of consideration:

  • 1794 H4 support level is the key level to watch.
  • 1825 H4 resistance level is key level to watch

 

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